Predictability

Definitions

The characteristic of being predictable.

Equivalents

Examples

“There are several ways to approach⟳ predictability. One way is to investigate⟳ whether asset prices over the past few days or weeks can be used to predict⟳ tomorrow’s price. The answer⟳ is no. Following a large amount of careful statistical work⟳ by Fama in the 1960s, researchers now agree⟳ that past prices are of very little use⟳ in predicting returns over the immediate future. [...] An implication of the excessive swings in stock⟳ prices is that a high ratio of price relative to dividends in one year will tend⟳ to be followed by a fall⟳ in prices relative to dividends over subsequent years, and vice versa. This means that returns follow⟳ a predictable pattern in the longer run⟳. Shiller and his collaborators demonstrated such predictability in stock⟳ markets as well as bond markets, and other researchers have⟳ later confirmed this finding in many other markets.”

“England's fans responded by loudly rallying to Maguire's cause but there was a grim predictability about what happened in the 67th minute, the defender lazily sticking out a leg to divert Robertson's cross past helpless keeper Aaron Ramsdale.”

CEFR level